The Impact Of The Situation in Russia And Ukraine On The Textile Industry

The impact of the situation in Russia and Ukraine on the textile industry

1. Raw materials are soaring

According to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, among more than 130 key basic chemical materials, 32% of the varieties in China are still blank, and 52% of the varieties are still imported. Such as high-end electronic chemicals, high-end functional materials, high-end polyolefins, aromatic hydrocarbons, chemical fibers, etc., and most of the above products and industrial chain segmented raw materials belong to basic bulk chemical raw materials.

It is not difficult to see that more than 30 kinds of chemical products in China are mainly imported from abroad, and some of them are highly dependent, such as high-end monopoly products such as adiponitrile, hexamethylene diamine, high-end titanium dioxide, and silicone. Since the beginning of the year, the price trend of these products has gradually soared, with a maximum increase of 8,200 yuan/ton, an increase of nearly 30%.

2. The international oil price exceeded 110 US dollars,

polyester short price or relatively strong in March

The "financial nuclear weapons" button was pressed, and oil prices shot up again. On February 26, Western powers such as the United States, the European Union, the United Kingdom and Canada issued a joint statement, announcing that several major Russian banks were prohibited from using the SWIFT international settlement system; the European Parliament passed a resolution to limit the import of oil and gas from Russia and implement new Investment ban, severing its ties with SWIFT, the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication. The market panic has continued to expand, and market participants have begun to worry about whether there will be follow-up measures such as energy sanctions.

Sanctions against Russia continued to escalate, the market worried that Russia's energy supply would be interrupted, and international oil prices soared. On March 2, international crude oil prices continued to rise. Brent crude futures rose 3.44% to $110.91 a barrel, the highest since 2014. WTI crude oil futures rose more than 5% to US$109.13 per barrel. At present, it is unlikely that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will ease in the short term. With the continuous interpretation of this incident, the risk factors of oil prices have not been lifted, and the risk premium will continue to increase. , there are currently market forecasts for oil prices to rise to $140 per barrel or even higher.

According to past experience, the crude oil market has risen sharply, and the polyester polyester market must follow! From a recent point of view, the Russian-Ukrainian crisis has affected the market nerves, the staged upward trend of crude oil is irreversible, the pattern of weak supply and strong demand continues, and the market’s bullish sentiment will not diminish, which will drive the speed of market shipments to accelerate in the short term.

Geopolitical issues in Ukraine and Russia are the most fundamental drivers of the recent rise in oil prices. Although there are also some negative factors in the international oil price market, for example, the supply of shale gas in the United States may increase, superimposed on the potential supply release of Iran, and the U.S. dollar will strengthen in stages, but the market still focuses more on geopolitical issues. The negative factors have weakened. In the later period, it is expected that after March, the PTA industry maintenance and burden reduction plans will be more concentrated. It is expected that the PTA market has gradually shown a small destocking state; but the ethylene glycol will likely continue to accumulate.

The current Ukrainian issue may continue to stimulate oil prices, but the U.S. crude oil inventories continue to grow, and the U.S. is considering releasing its strategic reserves again, the Iran issue is progressing smoothly, and OPEC+ may stick to its production increase plan at the meeting in early March. At present, the oil market is still intertwined, short-term Or continue the trend of frequent shocks. In terms of oil prices, it is expected that the price of staple fiber may be relatively strong in March under the expectation that there is no pressure on the fundamentals of polyester staple fiber itself and the supply of main raw materials will be greatly reduced.