Sea Freight Plummets, Supply Chain Hindered!

The original "hard to find" sea freight has plummeted, but Southeast Asia has quietly raised prices! The "two layers of ice and fire" under the obstruction of the supply chain

With soaring fuel costs and better consumption expectations, the export transportation market in Southeast Asia will also become hotter in recent days. In fact, the market's response is always faster than various judgments. The most direct manifestation is that since Vietnam opened its entry in mid-March, after half a month of demand brewing, now the shipping route from North China to Ho Chi Minh, some containers are shipped. The price increase has exceeded 50%; the price of South China-Philippines is also on the rise; Thailand's space is also very tight.

However, from the perspective of domestic shipping routes, it is a double world, and the originally high international shipping costs have dropped significantly in the near future!

One of the reasons behind this is that the upgrade of epidemic prevention and control in some parts of the country has caused supply chain blockages, which has changed and adjusted the market supply and demand relationship that was originally "hard to find in one box". At the same time, changes in the international situation have also affected the global consumer market.

Sea freight rates fall from high levels

"The actual shipping price of (container ships) has dropped by about 20% on average since the Spring Festival. The freight rate from China to the United States and West has dropped from about 12,000 US dollars to 8,000 US dollars now, more than 30%, and the European line has dropped even more. Big.” Zhou Shihao, CEO of China’s one-stop international logistics service platform “Shipping to Where” pointed out that the main reason for the decline is that the original tight supply and demand situation has changed, “There are still so many ships on the market, but the export volume is expected to decline recently. 30% to 40%”.

Previously, Zhou Shihao's prediction for shipping prices was that they would remain high and volatile in the next two years. The recent emergencies obviously changed this trend, triggering the biggest drop since the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020.

The Shanghai Shipping Exchange announced on April 2 that the epidemic has spread in some parts of my country recently, but it is generally controllable. my country's export market continued to remain stable. This week, China's export container transportation market was generally stable, and the freight rates of many ocean routes fell from high levels. On April 1, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index released by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange was 4348.71 points, compared with 4434.07 points last week.

From January 28 to April 1, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) decreased from 3565.33 to 3204.83, a decrease of 10.11%, and the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) decreased from 5010.36 to 4348.71, a decrease of 13.21%.

Logistics slowdown due to prevention and control upgrade

With the escalation of epidemic prevention and control, my country's supply chain is generally trapped in domestic logistics, and the entire process from raw material procurement to post-production shipment has slowed down.

As a long-term observer in the field of international shipping, Chen Yang, editor-in-chief of Xinde Maritime.com, a professional shipping information consulting platform, said that recently there have been pictures of Shanghai Port being "captured" and congested by container ships. In reality, Shanghai Port is not only free of congestion, but the number of container ships is somewhat reduced.

According to the data previously provided by VesselsValue, from March 16 to March 30, the number of various types of ships waiting in the waters near Shanghai did continue to rise, from 98 to 347. However, the major increase was mainly for dry bulk ships and oil tankers, and the number of container ships continued to decline from March 20, and dropped from 75 on March 20 to 39 on March 30, nearly halving.

Chen Yang pointed out that, in general, Shanghai/Yangshan Port is in the basic smooth range. Although the port is not congested and operates normally as a connecting terminal, the export of goods from Shanghai Port is still affected. "There are ships at sea, and trucks are needed on the road. Every link must be smooth, and the entire logistics chain can be complete." The impact of the upgrade on road transportation, especially land logistics and warehouses, cannot be ignored.

Express, freight forwarding, warehouse services are suspended

Zhou Mu, the relevant person in charge of the Anhui garment foreign trade manufacturing enterprise, said that since March 28, they have received notices from international express companies, freight companies and warehouses, saying that related services will be suspended due to the impact of epidemic control. Even if some companies collect the goods for collection, most of them are stuck on the way, and there is no news for a few days. At present, the freight forwarding company that suspended the service has not yet made it clear when it will return to normal.

Zhou Shihao said that many freight forwarding companies rely on offline services. Once most employees cannot go to the office to work normally, they can only suspend the service. For freight forwarding companies with a higher degree of digitalization, services can still be provided at present, and the services of the entire industry have not completely stopped. Truck drivers need to hold a 48-hour nucleic acid negative certificate. The traffic efficiency has indeed decreased, but it can still be used on the road.

Affected by domestic logistics, as a one-stop international logistics service platform, the recent business volume of "Shine Qun" in Shanghai Port has shrunk by about 20%. Truck traffic drops

SIPG also stated that according to the requirements of epidemic control, cross-provincial transport by land trucks requires the driver to provide a certificate of negative nucleic acid test results, and the transport volume has decreased compared with the previous period. To this end, SIPG has taken active and effective countermeasures to continuously optimize the collection and distribution system to effectively reduce congestion. In order to improve logistics efficiency, SIPG has urgently developed and launched the "Epidemic Prevention Pass" platform, relying on the big data platform to connect nucleic acid detection data and application code information, and combined with the business information of electronic equipment handover orders, to generate an electronic epidemic prevention pass, collect card transportation " One yard to go."

COSCO Group is also trying to maintain a high load factor. Cosco's recent report shared by industry insiders shows that the customs clearance rate in Shanghai has increased this week, the control measures in surrounding areas have been strengthened, and towing services have also been affected. It is expected that Shanghai's export volume will decline in the next few weeks. Outbound shipments, as well as dynamic adjustment of international transshipment box arrangements to maintain overall high loading rates. From this week (13 weeks) to the end of April (19 weeks), the overall space utilization rate was 95%, of which this week's loading rate was 96%.

Container transfer to Ningbo Port

In 2021, the container throughput of Shanghai Port will exceed 47 million TEUs, ranking first in the world for 12 consecutive years.

In the promotion of the integration of the Yangtze River Delta, the waters of the Yangtze River Delta with Shanghai as the center have also become the area with the highest density of ships and the busiest traffic flow organization in the world. Xu Kai, director of the Shipping Information Institute of the Shanghai International Shipping Research Center, pointed out that the number of ship positioning signals in the Yangtze River Delta coast exceeds 15,000 all year round. In addition to the special natural environment and complex channel order for navigation in the waters of the Yangtze River Estuary, this area has become the current global maritime location. The most traffic-intensive waters.

According to Zhou Shihao's observation, due to the impact of epidemic prevention and control, some of the goods that have been blocked from exporting are being transferred from Shanghai Port to Ningbo Zhoushan Port or Nanjing Port.

For Zhou Mu, 95% of the company's goods are exported from Shanghai port, but some goods are also trying to transfer to Ningbo port recently.

Data from Ningbo Zhoushan Port shows that from April 1 to 3, the average daily container throughput of Ningbo Zhoushan Port exceeded 100,000 TEUs, exceeding the daily average of last year and the first quarter of this year, of which 131,000 TEUs were completed on April 2. It is the second highest single day this year. Shipping is not easy

However, Chen Yang said that the current situation is that it may not be easy for factories in Shanghai to ship to Ningbo Zhoushan Port, and other areas in the Yangtze River Delta want to detour, and the operation will not be so smooth in a short time.

"The transfer of some of our goods to Ningbo Port is not so smooth. It is easy to understand that one avenue is affected, and everyone is going to squeeze the sheep intestines trail next to it." Zhou Mu said that many destinations cannot be reached from Ningbo Port.

In addition, there have also been confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia in Ningbo recently, so the inspection and epidemic prevention of container truck drivers has become more stringent. According to a notice issued by Ningbo Meidong Container Terminal Co., Ltd. on April 3, truck drivers entering the port area need to complete a free nucleic acid test immediately before entering the port area.

In Zhou Mu's view, it will take some time to return to normal shipments even if the epidemic prevention is relaxed. Fortunately, for foreign trade manufacturing enterprises in the clothing field, the production and sales peak period is from June to September every year, and the factories are not busy at present. Although the overall order is not bad, it is mainly benefited from the "order return" that continued in October last year. Next, as production in Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam gradually returns to normal, the division of labor in the entire region will also return to normal.

Zhou Shihao also pointed out that the recent business growth of "Shipping Qunar" in Southeast Asia has increased significantly, and the business volume of Southeast Asian customers has increased a lot. But in general, the foreign trade industry will still face greater challenges this year, and the global market will inevitably be affected, including the situation in Europe.

According to customs statistics, in the first two months of this year, my country's total import and export value was 6.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 13.3% over the same period last year (the same below). Among them, the export was 3.47 trillion yuan, an increase of 13.6%; the import was 2.73 trillion yuan, an increase of 12.9%; the trade surplus was 738.8 billion yuan, an increase of 16.3%. Exports of mechanical and electrical products and labor-intensive products both increased.

Under the overall improvement of foreign trade, in addition to the current logistics obstruction, foreign trade manufacturing enterprises are also facing many challenges such as high compliance service costs, raw material prices and exchange rate fluctuations.

Shipping company issues notice of fee waiver

It is understood that some of the goods originally scheduled to be shipped from Shanghai can only be selected from Ningbo Port, or to Shanghai Port by rail/barge.

Some shipping companies have issued business adjustment and fee waiver notices for various arrangements such as demurrage, change of orders, and third-place receipt of orders that may arise. details as follows:

COSCO Shipping

For the original bill of lading that has not been issued, we will provide free service of modifying telex release and sea waybill, as well as off-site signing service in the surrounding areas of Shanghai (Suzhou, Huzhou, Zhangjiagang, Nanjing and Nantong). The sea waybill can be issued online normally.

Currently, Puxi is in the closed screening period. The comprehensive service hall of COSCO SHIPPING Lines in Shanghai Puxi area is temporarily closed, and the Pudong office location is also closed. Therefore, the window business in Shanghai area will be suspended, and all import and export related business will be conducted online.

Maersk

Free change of destination for imported goods arriving at Shanghai Port, applicable ETA: April 1st to April 15th;

For export goods cancelled by Shanghai Port, Detention & Demurrage is exempted, and ETD is applicable: March 28 to April 5;

From March 28th to April 5th, D&D billing will be suspended, and Shanghai import and export are applicable;

Free modification/cancellation of Shanghai import and export SPOT and other goods. Applicable Import ETA/Export ETD: April 1st to April 5th.

For goods shipped in Shanghai Port, from March 28 to April 5, the fees for documents will be adjusted as follows: if the bill of lading type is changed to Waybill, no change fee will be charged; no third place billing fee will be charged; no telephony will be charged Release fee; no late fee.

In addition, due to the closure of some yards, Maersk updated the currently available yards as follows: